An integrated view of the three key gauges of US consumer credit health. Rising delinquency rates signal growing financial stress on consumers, while falling rates indicate improving credit quality.
Updated quarterly from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data)
Credit Card Delinquency Rate
Credit Card Charge-Off Rate
Auto Loan Delinquency Rate
Overall Trend
What is the Delinquency Rate?
The delinquency rate is the share of loans that are 30 or more days past due relative to total loans outstanding. It is a leading indicator of deteriorating consumer repayment capacity and tends to rise ahead of recessions.
Key drivers:Changes in the unemployment rate
Interest rate levels (especially variable-rate loans)
Consumer income growth
Shifts in lending standards
What is the Charge-Off Rate?
The charge-off rate is the share of loans banks have written off as uncollectible. Loans are typically charged off after being 120 to 180 days or more past due.
Delinquency vs. charge-off:Delinquency: 30+ days past due (recovery still possible)
Charge-off: deemed uncollectible (loss is realized)
Charge-offs lag delinquencies
What Makes Auto Loans Different
Auto loans are collateralized by the vehicle, so delinquency rates run lower than credit cards. However, rising vehicle prices and longer loan terms have been increasing the risk in recent years.
Recent trends:Average loan term: around 68 months, a record high
Growing share of subprime auto loans
Collateral-value risk from used-car price swings