广义货币——现金与存款加上货币市场基金和储蓄。其规模与增速领先于通胀和资产市场。
M2即'广义货币'，在现金和活期存款（M1）的基础上，进一步纳入储蓄存款、货币市场基金和小额定期存款等较易变现的资产。它反映经济中的总流动性，其增速被用作通胀和资产市场的领先信号。
M2 is a broad measure of the amount of money circulating in the economy. It includes highly liquid money such as cash and checking deposits (M1) plus savings deposits, small time deposits, and retail money market funds. The Federal Reserve publishes M2 monthly in its H.6 statistical release. It serves as a widely used gauge of overall liquidity conditions in the economy.
When M2 grows much faster than the economy, it signals abundant liquidity that can feed into inflation pressure with a lag; when M2 stagnates or contracts, it points to tightening liquidity, which is often associated with slowing growth and cooling inflation. The year-over-year growth rate and its direction matter more than the absolute level. The link between money supply and prices operates with long and variable lags, so M2 works best as a big-picture indicator rather than a precise forecasting tool. Comparing M2 growth with nominal GDP growth is a common way to judge whether liquidity is expansionary or restrictive.
Historically, periods of rapid M2 expansion have often coincided with strength in asset prices, including equities, real estate, and cryptocurrencies, while decelerating or shrinking money supply signals a less supportive liquidity backdrop. Because M2 is monthly and somewhat backward-looking, it is used mainly to assess the medium-term liquidity regime rather than to time short-term trades. Cross-checking M2 with the federal funds rate, the Fed's balance sheet, and bank lending growth gives a more complete picture of liquidity conditions.