美联储2%目标所参照的'青睐指标'，在判断货币政策方向上比CPI更重要。
PCE物价指数衡量消费者购买的商品和服务的价格变化，是美联储2%通胀目标所参照的'青睐指标'，比CPI更能反映消费结构的变化。
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index measures price changes across the full range of goods and services consumed by U.S. households. It is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, usually near the end of the month, as part of the personal income and outlays report. Its coverage is broader than CPI, and its formula accounts for consumers substituting between products as relative prices change. Because of these differences, PCE inflation tends to run somewhat below CPI inflation over the same period.
The key fact is that the PCE price index is the Federal Reserve's official gauge for its 2% inflation target. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, is widely regarded as the single inflation measure Fed policymakers watch most closely when setting interest rates. Whether core PCE is trending steadily back toward 2% is a central input into decisions about cutting or raising the federal funds rate. Since CPI for the same month is released earlier, PCE often serves to confirm the trend, but it carries more weight from a policy perspective.
An above-consensus core PCE reading tends to reinforce higher-for-longer rate expectations, lifting bond yields and pressuring equities, while a softer reading typically supports rate-cut hopes and risk assets. Market reactions can be more muted than on CPI day because much of the information is already priced in, but PCE releases matter greatly ahead of Federal Reserve meetings. Reading PCE alongside CPI, labor-market data, and Fed communications provides a clearer view of the likely path of monetary policy.