データソース: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) • 最終更新: 2026-04-01
-0.6%p （前期比）2026年第2四半期（年率）
2%以上: 健全な成長 0〜2%: 低成長 マイナス: 景気後退
2025年通年 長期平均: 2.5%
GDP（国内総生産）成長率は、一国の経済規模がどれだけ拡大したかを示す中核的な経済指標です。前期比または前年同期比の実質GDPの増減率をパーセントで表します。
GDP growth measures how much the total output of goods and services in an economy expanded over a given period, making it the broadest gauge of economic activity. In the United States, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports it quarterly, with the headline figure expressed as the annualized quarter-over-quarter change in real, inflation-adjusted GDP. Each quarter's figure is released in three rounds, the advance, second, and third estimates, with later rounds incorporating more complete data. The report also breaks down contributions from consumption, investment, government spending, and net exports.
The long-run trend growth rate of the U.S. economy is generally estimated at around 2%, so readings well above that suggest an overheating economy while readings well below it signal a slowdown. Two consecutive quarters of declining real GDP are commonly called a technical recession, though official U.S. recession dating is done by the National Bureau of Economic Research using a broader set of indicators. Looking beyond the headline to the contributions from personal consumption and private investment reveals the quality of growth. Swings in inventories and net exports can make the headline diverge from underlying domestic demand.
Stronger-than-expected GDP growth often supports equities through better earnings expectations, but if it stokes overheating concerns it can also lift rate-hike expectations and weigh on markets. Reactions to the release are sometimes muted because monthly data have already shaped expectations for the quarter. Real-time estimates such as the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow play a large role in setting market consensus ahead of the release. Tracking ISM surveys, retail sales, and employment data alongside GDP helps monitor growth momentum at a higher frequency.